Sunday, December 27, 2020

Buoyant markets and the eternal feeling of FOMO

As the markets are in a buoyant mode, I am receiving increasing numbers of messages asking for advice on whether to invest in this or that market.

 

I am a researcher and lecturer with some outdated training in forex trading and with a small investment portfolio as my pastime just to lighten the boredom of life. But if you will, here is my more-than-a-decade-long long-term investment ethos:

  • It is very unlikely that you can beat the market. If you think you can, think twice. I was very lucky to get to know people like John Bogle very early. If you want some advice from him, have a look at his book.
  • Having the above point in mind, dollar-cost-average when there is blood in the streets (in bear markets), take profit when everyone FOMOes. Otherwise, stay put, relax, and enjoy your life/work!
  • While dollar-cost-averaging, have some exposure to assets/investments with asymmetric payoffs. 
  • In case you are FOMOed, keep in mind that life is long enough, be patient, and wait for your turn. Believe me, your turn will come.
  • It is a waste of the good gift of life to be spent on trading. I am sure there are very many great productive things you can do with your life. Unless you really love trading, don’t make trading your full-time profession, except if you are a fund manager or adviser or you work for an investment services business. In that case, it becomes a heads-I-win, tails-you-lose situation, the best of the two worlds. 
  • In case you are lucky and make some good money on your investment, be humble and generous. Believe me (or for that matter, the Bible or the classic Persian literature), cast some of your profits upon the waters and it will return to you manyfold.
  • Don't listen to anybody (including me). Do your own research.

I am also receiving some questions on investment in Bitcoin, I have always been optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. But I always refrain from price forecasting, and for good reasons. I have written a few papers on Bitcoin and crypto-assets. In this paper, my coauthor and I have highlighted one very specific feature of Bitcoin and in this one, I have explored certain governance issues in Bitcoin, which answers some questions raised by Bitcoin skeptics. If you have time, you may have a look and decide for yourself whether Bitcoin is worth investing in. 


Again, I am not an investment adviser, and this is not investment advice.


Enjoy your holidays and have a great 2021. 

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

In praise of free markets or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the free market

The more my age advances, the more I realize that the only fair market is the free market and that the only value that should prevail when it is in conflict with other values is Freedom, one manifestation of which in the business world is the equality of opportunities (market freedom). Any measure we take to correct the perceived failures of free markets tends to distort it in ways that not only make it un-free and unfair but also attract rent-seekers who often do the rent-seeking at the expense of the least advantaged groups in a society. 

I know that many of you who sit in positions of privilege do not share this view with me. But this might be exactly because you are already sitting in a position of privilege and have probably never genuinely experienced how someone starts from zero. Let me start with my own lived experience.  

I was born into a poor family in one of the worst neighborhoods of our city in Iran, with official and nick-names of the neighborhood literally meaning “[neighborhood] without wire/electricity” and “established by force”. My parents – of whom I am immensely proud - are completely illiterate. Not knowing how to read and write - and even worse, belonging to the Azeri minority, how to speak the official language of the country – they have always struggled raising me and my other five brothers and sisters. My father, as a factory worker, had to go to work from 4 a.m. to 8 p.m., and my mother busied herself with raising the kids at home. 

I am not going to go into the details but just wanted to say that being born into such conditions, the first 20-years of my life was replete with all sorts of hardships and difficulties. I had to start working at the age of 6 or 7 in a carpet-weaning workshop – a kind of job that I still consider one of the examples of crimes against humanity - from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with the exception of school seasons, during which I was privileged to work part-time and attend the school the rest of the day. But the great thing about working in a manual job, which does not require a lot of thinking, is that it gives you ample time to (day)dream. This, I did for more than 10 years before being admitted to the Law School of my dream in Tehran.

But how did I get into such a prestigious university? The answer is by taking advantage of ever-disappearing outposts of equality of opportunity, which gave me the opportunity to enter free competitive battles in which almost all of the participants were treated equally. The nation-wide entrance exam for state/public universities in Iran is the fiercest competition one can face and it has an unparalleled reputation for incorruptibility (though there are some backdoors to the Universities for certain people). After studying hard for 9 months from 5 in the morning to 12 at night and obtaining the rank of 38 out of more than 500,000 competitors, I enrolled in the University in Tehran, where I had the privilege of coming to know an entirely new class of people and styles of lives that gave me a huge culture shock with scales far greater than the one I experienced when I migrated from Iran to the Western hemisphere. 

It was this environment that made me more ambitious and encouraged me to pursue my studies somewhere else. If it was not for the anonymized and impersonal artificial markets (exams) for University entrance, which kept the human biases, bigotry, and prejudices at bay in the selection process, I and a lot of other people like me were still sitting in carpet-weaving factories weaving stupid Persian carpets.

But I have always struggled once external factors interfered to make free-market processes fair by adding extra – and often arbitrary- measures to markets. In my home country, these ultra-market measures were often the test for religious piety, and devotion to the government and its ideology, and in western countries they are the formal considerations of citizenship, residency, race, gender, and informal considerations of cronyism, cultism, tribalism, favoritism, etc. Whether ideological, religious, progressive, or regressive, they have always worked against me and the people like me with an immensely discouraging impact. In my eyes, they seem to pursue a single objective: protectionism under the guise of fairness with the aim of keeping out the least advantaged people and protecting those who often have a greater influence on the decision-making processes. Let me give you another example of my lived experience. 

During the last couple of years that I have been in the academic job market, I have applied for several positions that I thought I would be a great fit, but eventually, I was not selected. The academic world is a small world and you often come to know who has been selected for a specific position. I am always very happy with the result when I realize that I have lost the game against brilliant minds, but in the majority of the cases, I came to know that I have lost the race to someone not even having one-fifth of my skills, expertise, and experience. These all happened in a job market where the selection committees did not have much skin in the game. I believe the outcome would have been totally different if I were competing in an anonymized or impersonal free market with the committees unaware of my name (which reveals my country/region of origin). I would have attained even better results if the selection committee had 100% skin in the game instead of a committee that only distributes/spends taxpayer money. 

I have to mention that I was once offered a position that I considered accepting. But once I got wind of the fact that some of the extra competitive elements had influenced the decision of the selection committee, I decided to decline the offer without hesitation, as I believed that me accepting the offer would have meant depriving someone else, who was more competent than me, from the opportunity. Please do not see this as virtue signaling. I had to mention it because I did not tell you why I am so immensely proud of my parents: among others, their uncompromising insistence in my upbringing on not infringing other peoples’ rights, irrespective of the consequences.

These two examples of my lived experience, from which I have left tons of details out, are why I would never trade free markets with fair, just, or whatever nice adjective you put before the word ‘market’. It was the free market/competition and equality of opportunity that helped me and thousands/millions like me out of the abject conditions, and it is the human considerations of fairness – extremely prone to rent-seeking behavior that welcomes all sorts of bigotry and prejudice – that have held and are holding the disadvantaged and the underprivileged back. 

This is of course not to say that free markets are always perfect. We are not discussing perfection here; the point is that the alternatives are often worse. In other words, just like most of our social phenomena, perhaps the free market is the worst form of organizing human societies, except for all the others.

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Monetary Exclusion and Decentralized Financial Technologies

In November 2018, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) - a financial market infrastructure (FMI) institution that provides secure messaging for international payments - suspended certain Iranian banks’ access (including that of the Central Bank of Iran) to its messaging system. This step was seemingly taken to protect the stability and integrity of the global financial systems. However, the reluctant tone of the announcement could hardly disguise the reality that SWIFT took such an action conceding to the US government push to expand the secondary sanctions on financial messaging services to the Central Bank of Iran. Although the US did not have jurisdiction over SWIFT, which is a cooperative company incorporated under the Belgian law and is owned and controlled by its shareholders (financial institutions), after months of intense negotiations about the US demands and irrespective of the dismay expressed by European officials, SWIFT had to acquiesce. In making SWIFT to yield to US demands, the US government apparently went to such an extent as to threaten the SWIFT’s twenty five board members (which include two US bankers from Citi Bank and JPMorgan) with visa bans and asset freezes, and its member banks with charges and fines.
The intrusion of considerations beyond the scope of financial regulation in the operation and risks management of Financial Market Infrastructures (FMIs), was of such proportions that triggered radical proposals for reforming and restructuring the international FMI institutions. The recent calls for establishing international payment rails independent of the US have shown the frustration with the hegemony of a single dominant player having formal (i.e., through extraterritorial application of its laws or through secondary sanctions) and informal dominance over international payment infrastructures. For example, German foreign minister Heiko Maas proposed that Europe could create its own SWIFT rival based on the euro rather than the US dollar (USD). More recently, speculations about Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC), which would be provided by the public sector through a network of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), could also be viewed as a mechanism that could - in the long run - lead to decentralization in a multipolar international monetary and financial system. However, it is unlikely that a system, which is based on fiat money, issued and controlled by states, could stand tall against the pressures exerted by one or more groups of hegemonic governments. 
These developments have also highlighted the need for a truly decentralized uncensorable FMI on which one or a group of coordinated actors could not exert arbitrary influence. Such a value proposition requires a settlement asset that is denationalized, decentralized (peer-to-peer), divisible, digital, and globally transferable, and that provides certain levels of anonymity to its users. Bitcoin, which is built upon an open-source protocol, a distributed tamper-resistant timestamped globally synchronized ledger, and embeds a native digital asset is an obvious candidate to play such a role, despite its shortcomings in terms of price volatility. In this regard, it is important to mention that in spite of its currently predominant use as a speculative asset, Bitcoin and its underlying technology can be viewed as a new model for a parallel decentralized FMI (dFMI) for clearing and settling obligations in its unanchored native settlement asset (i.e., bitcoin). In addition to clearing and settling its native asset, Bitcoin can be used to transfer the title to tangible or intangible assets on top of the Bitcoin blockchain. This is made possible because Bitcoin’s scripting language allows embedding metadata in bitcoin transactions. For example, colored coins allow for recording the creation, ownership, transfer, and tracking of extrinsic digital and physical assets other than bitcoin.
Add censorship-resistant property of Bitcoin to the above specificities. Censorship resistance as the unique value proposition of Bitcoin is very much reflected in the Bitcoin whitepaper as well as Satoshi Nakamoto’s communications with early bitcoin adopters. Given the fate of Bitcoin’s predecessors such as Digicash and American Liberty Dollar (ALD), whose centralization was their undoing, the creator or creators of Bitcoin had the understanding that permissionless innovative payment systems have to be decentralized, otherwise those innovations will face the same fate as Bitcoin’s ancestors. This is also clear from the chronology of the technological breakthroughs that led to the birth of Bitcoin. 
More importantly, censorship-resistant property of Bitcoin is reflected in the design of the Bitcoin network. The clearest manifestation of this property is in the trade-off between efficiency and censorship resistance. Rather than opt for fast and efficient payments, Bitcoin goes a long way to create extreme inefficiencies by introducing a distributed ledger that should be maintained, updated and validated by all fully validating nodes, only to make sure that no single or a small group of participants violate the rules of the Bitcoin protocol, modify the ledger arbitrarily or censor other stakeholders from participating in the Bitcoin network. Such a tradeoff has been made because the unique value proposition of Bitcoin and blockchain technology is not to replicate the functions of centralized technologies in a faster or cheaper fashion.
It is indeed hard not to notice that the censorship-resistant property of Bitcoin drives the entire mechanism design in the Bitcoin network. Since Bitcoin is designed to operate outside the legal framework (i.e., alegality), it assumes an adversarial environment and prepares to defend itself against various attack vectors using a variety of ex-ante built-in mechanisms within the Bitcoin network rather than rely on the external legal system for ex-post remedies. To this end, the PoW security and consensus mechanism and various other incentive mechanisms are embedded to align the often varied and divergent interests of network participants and discourage uncooperative behavior that could result in attacks on the network. 
Whether a parallel dFMI relying on a settlement asset other than fiat currencies can alleviate the issues of financial exclusion and censorship remains to be seen. In particular, because the reason that the US possesses disproportionate influence over payment infrastructures is not entirely due to the reserve currency status of the USD, which is predominantly used in international FMIs, but also it is because the US has a large and attractive economy the benefits of which are hard to forgo for market participants in the face of a threat of being cut out of the US markets. But it seems that decentralized financial technologies, in particular, their structural architecture, which is built upon decentralized or distributed, consensus-based and censorship-resistant mechanisms without relying on centralized third parties can help shield such infrastructures from undue political influence. Despite its current shortcomings in terms of price volatility and fungibility issues, Bitcoin remains to be a giant leap for mankind that offers a universal, permissionless, trust-minimized and censorship-resistant store of value and value transfer network.