As you may have noticed, I have been relatively silent on the Iranian protests, but this does not imply any indifference. I have been reticent because I believe it is not wise to take part in a game the outcome of which seems to be lose-lose for everyone. If you are familiar with the works of Machiavelli, Hobbes, and those of their more recent descendants like “The logic of political survival”, and “The dictator’s handbook”, and if you have read some institutional economics (e.g., Why nations fail?), and have happened to have heard of the public choice theory, then you can easily see that there is not much hope for the situation in Iran at least in the short to medium run. I am not throwing all these names, books, and theories at the readers to impress them, I do so because I believe that those works, put together, paint the most accurate and realistic picture of politics.
Back to the situation in Iran, let’s assume there will be two binary outcomes for the current situation: one in which the incumbent government remains in power, and the other we witness a successful revolution. I believe both scenarios will likely produce – to put it mildly - unpleasant outcomes.
If the government retains control, traumatized by the recent events, it is likely that it would become insecure and paranoid. The result would be to tighten the control over citizens and the nearly-dead civil society and to move toward a more closed society.
If the protesters succeed, the crucial question would be whether we have any kind of institution or any other mechanism to ensure that the incumbents will be replaced with a democratic government? My short answer is unfortunately negative. Given that neither in its ancient nor its contemporary history (except for very brief periods during which the country eventually descended into chaos), did Iran have a real experience with democratic institutions, it is likely that the people grabbing the political power after a revolution will reproduce the current system once again.
I have limited familiarity with the protesters on the street, but my impression of their figureheads leads me to my skepticism about their intentions that they want real democracy. A (constitutional) democracy is a double-edged sword, it cuts both ways. It is easy to be (or claim to be) democratic when you are the underdog, but it is difficult to be one when you are at the top.
The real test of being democratic is when your interests are at stake. Democracy works by via negativa (facilitating the removal of bad incumbents). When the time comes to yield to the majoritarian demand of removal from office or being respectful of minority rights, I am highly skeptical that they are going to yield to the requisites of a democratic government.
Having said that, those foreign intellectuals and celebrities, who do not have much knowledge of the situation in Iran, but nonetheless support the protesters, are going to regret it someday as they did about five decades ago.
There is a third scenario for Iran. The best but most unlikely scenario is to have a referendum that would allow for a peaceful transition, but as far as I can see, it is just a very remote probability not worth wasting our breath on.
It hurts deeply and makes me profoundly sad to write these lines, but it is very important to open our eyes to realities, not to lose sight of where we are standing, not to succumb to idealistic temptations, and adjust our expectations accordingly. Otherwise, once again we are going to fall prey to the schemes of charlatans and political entrepreneurs who are going to lure us into following them with undeliverable promises.
No country has become democratic overnight, and Iran is no exception. Becoming democratic takes stamina, persistence, perpetual vigilance, and most importantly willingness to accept societal outcomes that are against your private interests. The first step in the long and bumpy journey toward a free and democratic society is to develop a healthy dose of skepticism toward all governments (including democratic ones) and those who seek to acquire political positions.
I may be wrong, and it is my greatest wish to be so.
