Thoughts on the 2022 Iranian Protests

As you may have noticed, I have been relatively silent on the Iranian protests, but this does not imply any indifference. I have been reticent because I believe it is not wise to take part in a game the outcome of which seems to be lose-lose for everyone. If you are familiar with the works of Machiavelli, Hobbes, and those of their more recent descendants like “The logic of political survival”, and “The dictator’s handbook”, and if you have read some institutional economics (e.g., Why nations fail?), and have happened to have heard of the public choice theory, then you can easily see that there is not much hope for the situation in Iran at least in the short to medium run. I am not throwing all these names, books, and theories at the readers to impress them, I do so because I believe that those works, put together, paint the most accurate and realistic picture of politics. 

Back to the situation in Iran, let’s assume there will be two binary outcomes for the current situation: one in which the incumbent government remains in power, and the other we witness a successful revolution. I believe both scenarios will likely produce – to put it mildly - unpleasant outcomes. 

If the government retains control, traumatized by the recent events, it is likely that it would become insecure and paranoid. The result would be to tighten the control over citizens and the nearly-dead civil society and to move toward a more closed society.

If the protesters succeed, the crucial question would be whether we have any kind of institution or any other mechanism to ensure that the incumbents will be replaced with a democratic government? My short answer is unfortunately negative. Given that neither in its ancient nor its contemporary history (except for very brief periods during which the country eventually descended into chaos), did Iran have a real experience with democratic institutions, it is likely that the people grabbing the political power after a revolution will reproduce the current system once again. 

I have limited familiarity with the protesters on the street, but my impression of their figureheads leads me to my skepticism about their intentions that they want real democracy. A (constitutional) democracy is a double-edged sword, it cuts both ways. It is easy to be (or claim to be) democratic when you are the underdog, but it is difficult to be one when you are at the top. 

The real test of being democratic is when your interests are at stake. Democracy works by via negativa (facilitating the removal of bad incumbents). When the time comes to yield to the majoritarian demand of removal from office or being respectful of minority rights, I am highly skeptical that they are going to yield to the requisites of a democratic government. 

Having said that, those foreign intellectuals and celebrities, who do not have much knowledge of the situation in Iran, but nonetheless support the protesters, are going to regret it someday as they did about five decades ago. 

There is a third scenario for Iran. The best but most unlikely scenario is to have a referendum that would allow for a peaceful transition, but as far as I can see, it is just a very remote probability not worth wasting our breath on.

It hurts deeply and makes me profoundly sad to write these lines, but it is very important to open our eyes to realities, not to lose sight of where we are standing, not to succumb to idealistic temptations, and adjust our expectations accordingly. Otherwise, once again we are going to fall prey to the schemes of charlatans and political entrepreneurs who are going to lure us into following them with undeliverable promises. 

No country has become democratic overnight, and Iran is no exception. Becoming democratic takes stamina, persistence, perpetual vigilance, and most importantly willingness to accept societal outcomes that are against your private interests. The first step in the long and bumpy journey toward a free and democratic society is to develop a healthy dose of skepticism toward all governments (including democratic ones) and those who seek to acquire political positions. 

I may be wrong, and it is my greatest wish to be so. 

On the importance of taming our untamable revolutionary zeal

There seems to be quite some excitement in the air about the active engagement of the youngsters (Gen Z) in the Iranian protests of 2022. I think nothing good is likely to come out of such a development. Unfortunately, the majority of the protesters are too young to be expected to know about the complexities of the machinery of politics and to form a good judgment about societal or political processes. This I surmise when I hear how they overexaggerate the level of ignorance of their earlier generations and overestimate their own analytical powers; the same mistaken perceptions we had when we were their age. Those of my dear readers who are approximately my age (born in the 80s) and older may have just come to appreciate the complicated intricacies of politics. I can safely assume that those under the age of 30 are likely to make major mistakes and be taken advantage of relatively easily in politics and the process of political transformations.

I would have been much happier to see the younger generations more involved in economic and business matters than politics, and having gained more exposure and experience and acquired more in-depth knowledge and wisdom, tried to slowly effect incremental and piecemeal changes in the political system from within. This is because, in order to reform or replace a system, it is always a good idea to understand that system. Most probably there is a good reason why a system or a process is there in the first place and why it has persisted throughout many centuries. Exposure to business activities has the advantage that makes people get more detailed knowledge of the apparatus of a society and its inner workings. Without such knowledge, no matter how well-intentioned you may be, it is unlikely that you can effect any positive changes in society. Most probably your contribution would be in the form of a revolution that is likely to disrupt the evolving social continuity. I do not need to emphasize that the continuity for a nation is like the memory for a human being, without which we are only going to repeat the mistakes we have been repeating times and again.

Another issue that makes me slightly worried is that most of the people leading or pushing the emerging movement forward are artists or sports celebrities. Despite having a deep respect and much appreciation for artistic works, I can never trust an artist’s political or economic judgement. The arts may be exceptionally effective at casting some light on certain genuine concerns and poignant aspects of human life which cannot be captured by the narrow calculus of an economist or a policy maker. But the caveat is that an artistic work (e.g., a movie) is probably the last thing by which a policymaker or an economist should be inspired. Though these genres of arts and their artists are incredibly powerful at highlighting ‘some’ problematic aspects of the status quo or reality, they often are as hopeless as economists and policymakers in explaining what to do about it.

Artists have a natural tendency to be overcome by sentiments. This may be a virtue in arts, but definitely a weakness in politics. Politics often need specific types of people (no value judgment!) and artists are the worst fit for political positions. The events of the last century have also shown that artists are highly likely to form bad judgments about political events. Remember how many artists often ardently fight for revolutions only to become their victims further down the road.

Whenever you get excited by revolutionary thoughts, think of the day-one after the revolution. Who is going to replace the current governing bodies? In my judgment of Iran today, it is highly unlikely that a better group of people would take over the government. It is the unfortunate fact of human civilization that a revolution cannot escape the confines and limits of evolution. This being said, those who throw a monkey wrench at the process of peaceful evolution make violent revolution not only likely but may be inevitable; a suboptimal societal outcome for everyone.

Let me close this short note with a piece of sober and brotherly advice from legendary Will Durant for the younger generations and all who are overwhelmed by revolutionary zeal. 

“I should advise youth to be skeptical of revolution as a monster that devours its own fathers and its children. Less alluring, but less costly, are those processes of reform, by persistent propaganda and gradual implementation, which have achieved so many beneficent changes in our economic and political life in this century. Persons under thirty should never trust the economic, political, or moral ideas of any person under thirty.” 

I know that in the midst of the volcanic eruption of sentiments these lines are going to fall on deaf ears, but I think, now more than ever, we need to retain our sobriety and shield our minds against the engulfing tidal waves of revolutionary sentiments. 

Needless to say, these lines should by no means be interpreted as supporting the status quo which is utterly indefensible.