With the Middle-East in
turmoil, the Iran-Saudi rivalry at its peak, rampant manipulated national
emotions and zealotry at their historical heights, and the exchange of threats
on both Iranian and Saudi sides, all pieces of an impending war puzzle seem to be
in place. But as most commentators would suggest, the probability of an all-out
war is far-fetched, and Iranian and Saudi military threats are but strategic ruses for gaining an upper hand at the negotiating table over many matters
of geopolitical importance.
Though history keeps
repeatedly reminding us that many wars started just to gain a strategic
advantage at negotiating tables, for the moment, let’s not be very much
concerned about the politics of all this. What is disconcerting for me is the
rise of hate/war mongering rhetoric among the relatively (and
sometimes highly) educated people after the Mina incidents in which many
Iranian pilgrims died.
Highly dysfunctional and
opaque method of governance in Saudi Arabia is indeed a drag on the Saudi
government to effectively and transparently attend to the concerns of all
stakeholders of the incident and communicate its messages clearly. Needless to
say, no dictatorship is immune to such dysfunctionality and it should not be
taken personal. This is a point that needs not be explained as it is evident.
But what is not very clear
is that we have to be especially careful where there is a misunderstanding
between two undemocratic, non-transparent, and non-meritocratic governments. In
open democracies, premature hard-line sentiments to such contentious incidents
wither away in the process of open consensus building via institutions that
replace sentiments and emotions with reasoned institutional responses. But when
an undemocratic government lacking a decentralized deliberative system for
decision making faces such an incident, no such mechanisms are in place and the
probability of emotionally-driven and wrong reactions with potentially enormous
catastrophic consequences is
indeed very high.
Not only do those grave
consequences originate from the lack of domestic bottom-up consensus building
mechanisms, but also they may stem from the absence of proper channels of
communication between the two undemocratic, dysfunctional rivals.
It is highly probable
that the Mina incident was caused by a simple error. If so, legal mechanisms
provide for redress. So far, I have not seen any indication in the media
suggesting that there will be a legal or judicial follow-up for the incident.
Instead, we see highly irresponsible harsh language and military threats in
abundance even prior to any investigation on the causes of the incident being
conducted. If anything, what we can learn from our eight-year war with Iraq is
that war is and should always be the option of last resort.
Of course, politicians,
military officials, and diplomats might have many reasons to use this type of
language (mostly for strategic reasons), but ordinary citizens should avoid
following suit. What might be right for a nation might not be right for an individual. Let me rephrase the great historian and storyteller of the 20th century, Will Durant. Prejudice is fatal to an individual, but indispensable to a nation.
The long term result of the propagation of such threatening language among citizens against other nations will be an epidemic of bigotry, racism, and xenophobia.
The long term result of the propagation of such threatening language among citizens against other nations will be an epidemic of bigotry, racism, and xenophobia.
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